Renewed confidence in Asia’s economy after a weak third quarter is exerting a positive impact on the global economic outlook over the next six months, according to a recent world economic report.
The global economic climate is brightening, restoring hopes for recovery after a cautious third quarter, says a world economic survey published this month by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo.
The latest Ifo World Economic Survey of more than 1,000 economists in 120 countries showed a slight improvement in the current global economic situation and a significantly brighter outlook for the six months ahead.
The poll’s economic climate indicator has risen to 98.6 for the fourth quarter of 2013, despite dropping to 94.1 in the third quarter.
“Following a shaky third quarter, confidence in Asia’s economy shows a marked recovery, mainly driven by positive expectations in Japan and China,” the paper said. With the region’s current economic situation back to “satisfactory,” and expectations buoyant for future economic developments, the Ifo economic climate indicator for Asia has risen above its 15-year average.
“Given the weight of Asia in the world economy, I’d consider this renewed confidence as highly influential for the recovery of the world economy,” said Gernot Nerb of the Ifo Institute in a recent official statement.
Outside of Asia, recent improvements in North America’s economic climate stalled slightly as a result of the U.S. government’s partial shutdown last month. “However, the dip in confidence was small and six-month expectations remain positive,” said the Ifo Institute.
Confidence in the Euro zone has grown markedly, even though economic recovery is lagging behind other world regions, said the survey. “Six-month expectations are at their highest for almost three years and experts are also more confident about economic perspectives for the next three to five years.”
Nerb said: “There are growing signs that Europe is coming out of the doldrums and is finally showing signs of recovery. The expansionary monetary policy of the ECB [European Central Bank] is certainly one of the reasons for that.”
Added ICC Secretary General Jean-Guy Carrier: “The survey’s more optimistic reports from economists worldwide are encouraging. We now look to WTO negotiators, meeting in Bali next month, to conclude a trade facilitation deal that [could] create more than US$1 trillion in world export gains and approximately 21 million jobs, contributing significantly to global economic prospects.”
Photo: mandiberg
