Cargo airlines’ profit expectations for the year ahead have moderated compared to early 2015, but industry executives polled recently indicate that their outlook remains positive as volume declines appear to be tapering off, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Results of IATA’s quarterly business confidence survey of heads of cargo in January show that while the growth perspective is positive, this time around fewer stakeholders (45%) in the sector are expecting improvements in gains compared to the start of 2015.
Early last year, the percentage was 71%, which was the recent peak of respondents’ optimism for cargo growth.
“Expectations have weakened on the back of slower growth in world trade as well as little improvement in global business confidence due to sluggishness in some emerging markets,” said IATA.
Respondents noted a decline in yields in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to a year ago. Said the association, “The results of the January survey suggest that yields will decline during the year ahead, and the rate of respondents with this view has remained stable during the previous two quarters.”
However, industry players also said airfreight volumes started to improve slightly during the past three months. This response aligns with developments in freight tonne kilometer data, which indicates that falls earlier in 2015 have started to bottom out.
Meanwhile, growth in passenger volume is expected to continue in the coming months, which also translates to more opportunity for carriers to load freight in the bellies of aircraft.
Photo: Cameron
