The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the Philippines will fare better in the second half of the year than in the first even with continued economic uncertainties in the United States and Europe.
“Among the reasons for a very optimistic second half is the implementation of government’s acceleration program as well as improvement in public construction,” Marites Oliva, chief economic development specialist at NEDA’s National Planning and Policy Staff, told delegates to the recent PortCalls Cargo Economics Conference at the Manila Diamond Hotel.
“We are also expecting better performance from the industry sector following recovery of industrial production as well as reconstruction efforts in Japan,” she said.
A “surge in investment” is likewise expected following the “recent credit upgrade for the Philippines from Moody’s from Ba3 to Ba2 and from Fitch from BB to BB+”.
The positive outlook for the real estate industry; continued growth in mining; improvement in services with expected increase in the number of tourist arrivals; strong financial sector; and strong household consumption will also all contribute to better second-semester figures, Oliva said.
In the first half of the year, the economy grew 4%. Gross national income (GNI) rose 2.6% but was lower than the 10.3% posted in the same period last year.
Gross domestic product growth inched up 4% compared to last year’s 8.9%.
2011/12 projections
For 2011, NEDA’s revised growth projection for GDP is 4.5-5.5% and for GNI, 3.3-4.3%. This compares to initial projections of 5-6% growth for GDP and 5.4-6.3% for GNI.
For 2012, the revised forecast for GDP growth is 5-6% (from the original 5.5-6.5%) and for GNI, 3.5-4.5% (from 5.8-6.8%).
Under the Philippine Development Plan for 2011-2016, Oliva noted port-related policy directions of the government include encouraging investments in logistics infrastructure in the international market; promoting existing ports outside Metro Manila; reviewing and developing policies such as customs practices, transshipment of cargoes in various modes, and foreign shipping services along the entire multimodal transportation chain; and adopting a comprehensive long-term National Transport Policy.
