Global airfreight markets showed very modest growth of 1% in September compared to August when volumes were mostly stable. But the expansion is fragile and narrow, with Asia-Pacific carriers just barely managing to stay in the black, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Overall air cargo volumes, however, remain 1.2% down from their 2014 year-end peak, said IATA, citing its latest traffic data.
Results varied widely by region. Carriers in the Middle East reported the most significant growth (7.5%) followed by European (2.8%) and African airlines (2.5%). Asia-Pacific-based airlines recorded negligible growth (0.3%), and markets in North America (-3.3%) and Latin America (-6.4%) recorded declines.
All regions reported capacity expansions ahead of growth in demand, taking the freight load factor down to the lowest level since 2009 at 43.2%.
“Although slightly improved from August, the global trend is fragile, and the improvement is narrowly based. The 2.8% growth reported by European carriers reflects positive trends in trade with Central and Eastern European economies as well as a general improvement in manufacturing in the Eurozone. But the largest air cargo region, Asia-Pacific, was only just in positive territory, held down by weak regional trade,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO.
By region, Asia-Pacific carriers saw a slight rise in volume in terms of freight tonne kilometers (FTKs) of 0.3% in September compared to September 2014, and capacity expanded 2.1%. The contraction in Emerging Asia trade appears to have bottomed out, although China, South Korea, and Taiwan, among other key economies, are suffering from poor trade growth.
European carriers reported a rise in demand in September of 2.8% compared to a year ago and capacity rose 7.7%. Improvements in Eurozone manufacturing activity and in trade to and from Central/Eastern Europe seem to be finally feeding through to support airfreight demand.
North American airlines experienced a decline of 3.3% year-on-year and capacity grew 4.8%. Despite the poor year-on-year result, volumes in September were up 0.8% compared to August, indicating possibly that anticipated improvement in economic performance for the second half of the year may drive stronger airfreight demand.
Middle Eastern carriers saw demand expand by 7.5%, and capacity rise 12.6%. Although once again the fastest growing region, the increase was 5.5 percentage points down on the average for the year to date. Major economies in the region have seen slowdowns in non-oil sectors, but growth rates remain robust enough to sustain solid demand for air cargo.
Latin American airlines reported a decline in demand of 6.4% year-on-year, and capacity expanded 2.1%. Worsening economic and political conditions in Brazil have led to regional trade activity falling 7% between July and August. Air cargo demand is down 6.8% for the year with no sign of improvement in the months to come.
African carriers experienced growth in demand of 2.5%, and capacity rose by 8.1%. Nigeria and South Africa, the largest economies in the region, have underperformed. Regional trade, however, has held up, and generated increases in airfreight volumes.
Photo: David Harpe
