THE international container market is in for tough times until 2014, according to a study by one of the world’s largest classification firms ClassNK.
The rough conditions, according to the study, will affect shippers but most especially vessel owners with newbuildings.
The study showed that container volume is still expected to grow by two million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) this year and next, and by another four million TEUs by 2012.
But beginning 2012, international container trade will record flat growth until 2014. The worst-case scenario is a decline by eight million TEUs by 2014.
By 2011, about 25% of the world fleet would have been laid-up mostly at the North Side of Bantam Island in Indonesia, the study said.
To date, there are about 511 containerized ships with a total capacity of 1.31 million TEUs laid-up, representing 10.3% of the entire global fleet.
Earlier, feeder operator Regional Container Lines (RCL) said the global financial crisis is expected to clip growth of the global container industry to only 2.8% this year, the lowest since the industry’s inception 40 years ago.
The situation will also idle up to 11% of the total containerized fleet, said RCL owner’s representative Jesus Sedano, in a recent presentation to Philippine International Seafreight Forwarders Association members.
“Even with the anticipated growth of 2.8%, the industry is still expected to further go down as recovery from the crisis is expected to take some time due to its U-shape trend instead of the V-shape,” he said.
