Air cargo volumes continued to fall in February 2019, with Asia-Pacific taking the largest beating in the first two months of the year, according to the latest data from WorldACD.
Total chargeable weight for February fell 5.8% year-over-year and contracted 11.3% month-over-month. General cargo was down by 8.5% year-on-year but special cargo picked up by 0.5% compared to February 2018. In terms of direct ton kilometers, volume fell by 5.5% year-over-year; since there was a 5.8% contraction in volume, this means that average distance per shipment hardly changed.
Asia-Pacific was hit the hardest in the first two months of 2019, as outgoing volumes were down by 6.8% year-on-year and incoming by 6.1%, against the backdrop of a 3.6% worldwide decrease.
All other regions also suffered in incoming traffic, with year-on-year percentages ranging from -5% for Central & South America to -0.6% for North America. In year-on-year outgoing business, performances ranged from 2.5% growth for Africa to a 3.8% decline for North America.
In January, there was a lull in the business to Asia-Pacific, with a commensurate drop in outgoing business from the origins Europe and North America. But in February it was Asia-Pacific’s outgoing business that suffered most, particularly to the destinations Europe and North America. The Chinese New Year dip in business from China and Hong Kong seemed to last longer this year, noted WorldACD.
Comparatively, January-February 2019 still fared better than the first two months of both 2016 and 2017. Yet assuming that the decrease in world air cargo in the first quarter of 2019 will come to around 3%, the emerging trend looks quite worrisome for the sector, said WorldACD.
This is because in Q1 2018 air cargo registered a 5% year-on-year growth, followed by a 3% expansion in the second quarter of the year then a 1% growth in the next quarter before declining by 1% year-on-year in the last quarter of the year.
Thus, Q1 2019, with its projected 3% decline, does not bode well for the sector.
“At this moment in time, it seems harder and harder to achieve the 2% to 3% growth predicted for the full year 2019 by some of the industry players,” said WorldACD.
Of the top 25 markets, only five showed volume growth year-on-year in January-February: the UK, Australia, Kenya, Vietnam and Ecuador. For a number of countries, volume growth above 3% seems to be within grasp. Of the 100 largest origin countries, 31 showed a more than 3% year-on-year volume growth in the first two months of the year, seven of which also managed to get a yield increase in dollar terms. Apart from Turkey, none of these seven belonged to the top 30 markets, however.
Yield dropped to US$1.79, down 6.2% year-on-year and 3.4% month-on-month. The yield measured in EUR stood at 1.58.
In revenues (measured in dollar terms), those from the smallest shipments (0 to 50 kilograms) dropped 4.9% year-on-year, those from the largest shipments (more than 5,000 kg) suffered much more, dropping by 13.2%.
Thirty countries registered more than 3% growth in revenue year-on-year in outgoing air cargo. Among the larger origin countries, Mexico, Ethiopia, Chile, Norway and Turkey gained 10% or more. The same was true for a number of smaller origins, notably Costa Rica, Morocco and Cambodia.
“In other words, whilst overall expectations for 2019 may not be very impressive, a number of individual countries are likely to buck the trend,” WorldACD concluded.
Image by skeeze
