The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts air passenger numbers to double in the next 20 years to 8.2 billion in 2037, with Asia-Pacific as the main growth driver.
The latest update to IATA’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast shows that an increasing shift Eastwards in the center of gravity of the industry is behind the continued strong growth in passenger traffic. Over the next two decades, the forecast anticipates a 3.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), leading to a doubling in passenger numbers from today’s levels.
“Aviation is growing, and that is generating huge benefits for the world. A doubling of air passengers in the next 20 years could support 100 million jobs globally,” the association said.
It warned, however, that growth prospects for air transport, and the economic benefits driven by aviation, could be curtailed if protectionist measures are implemented by governments.
Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and CEO, said two important things stand out about this year’s forecast.
“Firstly, we are seeing a geographical reshuffling of world air traffic to the East. And secondly, we foresee a significant negative impact on the growth and benefits of aviation if tough and restrictive protectionist measures are implemented,” he said.
The Asia-Pacific region will drive the biggest growth with more than half the total number of new passengers over the next 20 years coming from these markets. Growth in this market is being driven by a combination of continued robust economic growth, improvements in household incomes, and favorable population and demographic profiles.
China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country) in the mid-2020s. India will take third place after the U.S., surpassing the UK around 2024.
Indonesia is forecast to be a standout performer—climbing from the world’s 10th largest aviation market in 2017 to the fourth largest by 2030.
Thailand is expected to enter the top 10 markets in 2030, replacing Italy which drops out of the ranking.
The 3.5% CAGR to 2037 assumes an unchanged policy framework over that period. Policy shifts, however, are likely over time. Should protectionism continue to expand in a “reverse globalization” scenario, aviation would continue to grow, but at a slower pace and deliver fewer economic and social benefits. Under a liberalized environment connectivity would generate significantly more jobs and GDP growth.
The fastest growing aviation markets in terms of annual additional origin-destination passengers from 2017 to 2037 are China (1 billion new passengers for a total of 1.6 billion), US (481 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion), India (414 million new passengers for a total of 572 million), Indonesia (282 million new passengers for a total of 411 million), and Thailand (116 million new passengers for a total of 214 million).
In terms of regional growth in 2037, routes to, from, and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 2.35 billion annual passengers by 2037, for a total market size of 3.9 billion passengers. Its CAGR of 4.8% is the highest, followed by Africa and the Middle East.
The North American region will grow by a CAGR of 2.4% annually and in 2037 will carry a total of 1.4 billion passengers, an additional 527 million passengers.
Europe will grow at a CAGR of 2.0%, and will see an additional 611 million passengers. The total market will be 1.9 billion passengers.
Latin American markets will grow by a CAGR of 3.6%, serving a total of 731 million passengers, an additional 371 million passengers annually compared to today.
The Middle East will grow strongly with a CAGR of 4.4% and will see an extra 290 million passengers on routes to, from and within the region by 2037. The total market size will be 501 million passengers.
Africa will grow by a CAGR of 4.6%. By 2037 it will see an extra 199 million passengers for a total market of 334 million passengers.
Photo: Altoshipper
