Following the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) on February 4, industry experts believe Malaysia’s trade performance will cross the MYR2 trillion (US$481 billion) mark in the near term, as new markets start to open up for the country’s exports.
“With new market openings following the pact, definitely we will see trade increasing,” said Malaysian International Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Jalilah Baba.
Now that the biggest trade deal has been signed, there is abundant work that needs to be undertaken by each country in reviewing quickly all the laws and regulations involved, said Jalilah.
She noted that prompt results were unlikely as the other 11 member-countries of the TPPA would also have to review their customs laws.
“Therefore, it will take some time for all TPPA countries to change all the relevant laws and regulations, only then can we see results,” she told Bernama.
Jalilah is hopeful that remarkable results should emerge within two years, depending on how fast all the TPPA countries could work on the details.
“Before we ratify, we should already start thinking about all the amendments that needs to be done. After three years only can we start seeing results,” added Jalilah.
Meanwhile, asked to comment on whether Malaysia could exceed the MYR2 trillion mark in total trade, Pong Teng Siew, Inter-Pacific Research Sdn Bhd head of research, said he does not see any quick improvement but results may be palpable in the long term.
Pong said that with most of the biggest economies around the world posting waning economic growth, the chances of expansion of world trade were slim.
“Europe is going through a slow growth pace and several parts of Europe risk sliding back into outright flat growth, as well as, a possible slowdown in China and tremendous slowdown in the United States trade may harbour suspicious global trade expansion… It could take many years before the full potential is realised,” he said, adding that it could be possible to see some form of benefits flowing from TPPA if some engines of growth come around.
Malaysia, which joined the TPPA in the third round of negotiations in October 2010, is forecast to see GDP growth of US$107 billion to US$211 billion in the period 2018-2027.
More than 90% the economic gains are being attributed to lower non-tariff measures.
Photo: CEphoto, Uwe Aranas
