Even though global economic doldrums slowed emerging markets in 2012, they continue to elicit strong enthusiasm from trade and logistics professionals in 2013, as the outlook for the United States and Europe remains uncertain, according to the 2013 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index.
Seventy-three percent of those surveyed feel prospects for emerging markets in 2013 are “good” or “very good.” The figure is about the same percentage as a year ago, but the number who feel “very good” is up sharply, to 22 percent from 14 percent.
The index, now on its fourth year, looks at the world’s most dynamic economies and the forces powering them. It ranks 45 major emerging markets and identifies the attributes that make them attractive for investment by logistics companies, air cargo carriers, shipping lines, freight forwarders, and distribution property companies.
The so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China remain the most dominant emerging markets. For the second consecutive year, the surveyed ranked the four as the most likely to emerge as logistics hubs over the next five years.
However, the index points to underlying weaknesses in each. China confronts rising labor costs, a skills shortage, and a growing gap in income disparity. India’s weak infrastructure and bureaucracy threaten its prospects; Brazil’s export sector is slowing; and Russia remains overly dependent on energy and resources exports.
The index survey also puts six “rising star” markets on the map alongside the BRIC nations: Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam, Mexico, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and South Africa all rank in the top 10 “perceived major logistics markets of the future” as well as in the top 10 “markets for potential investment in the next five years.”
Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, UAE, Malaysia, Mexico, and Turkey all finished in the top 10 overall index rankings. Turkey broke into the top 10 for the first time.
While BRIC nations remain favorites, non-BRIC Asia markets make a strong showing as emerging logistics hubs. Of the 20 countries viewed as having the most potential, Asia dominates—Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, and Pakistan all ranked highly. Indonesia moved up five places from the 2012 Index to finish No. 5 behind Russia. Thailand jumped to 14th from 29th, and Bangladesh rose to 12th from 25th.
Those surveyed were most optimistic about trade within Asia. The intra-Asian trade lane was ranked by respondents as having the most potential for growth of any emerging market-based lane for 2013.
Photo: zoutedrop
