The pickup in global growth recovery remains on track, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, maintaining its previous forecast of global growth at 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively, for 2017 and 2018.
The report released July 24 said, however, that the distribution of this growth around the world has changed from last April’s projection, with predictions up for some economies but down for others, offsetting those improvements.
The forecast was raised for the euro area, Japan, China, and emerging and developing Asia more generally, and notable improvements are also seen for emerging and developing Europe and Mexico.
In contrast, receiving a downgrade are the United States and the United Kingdom.
“Overall, though, recent data point to the broadest synchronized upswing the world economy has experienced in the last decade. World trade growth has also picked up, with volumes projected to grow faster than global output in the next two years,” said the report.
Economic activity in both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies is forecast to accelerate in 2017, to 2% and 4.6%, respectively, with global growth projected to be 3.5%, unchanged from the April forecast.
The growth forecast for 2018 is 1.9% for advanced economies, 0.1 percentage point below the April 2017 WEO, and 4.8% for emerging and developing economies, the same as in April. The 2018 global growth forecast is unchanged at 3.6%.
For emerging and developing Asia, growth is forecast at 6.5% for both 2017 and 2018.
China’s growth is expected to remain at 6.7% in 2017, the same level as in 2016, and to decline only modestly in 2018 to 6.4%.
Growth in India is forecast to pick up further, rising to 7.2% in 2017 and to 7.7% in 2018, in line with the April 2017 forecast.
With a pickup in global trade and strengthening domestic demand, growth in the ASEAN-5 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) is projected to remain robust at 5.1% in 2017 and 5.2% in 2018.
While risks around the global growth forecast appear broadly balanced in the near term, they remain skewed to the downside over the medium term. And despite the current improved outlook, longer-term growth forecasts remain subdued compared with historical levels, and tepid longer-term growth also carries risks, said the report.
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