NEWBUILDINGS for dry-bulk shipping is expected to rise 15% this year, 5 percentage points more than what was recorded in 2009, according to a recent report released by the Baltic and Interna-tional Maritime Council.
The newbuildings will reach about 84 million deadweight tons (dwt). This may still affect the volatile dry-bulk market since the demolition ratio continues to be low, the report said.
In the first five months of the year, the fleet has grown 6% caused by deliveries of 28.5 million dwt of newbuildings offset by just 2 million dwt being demolished.
“The inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 is to reach 84 million dwt offset by demolition of 13 million dwt,” the report said. “This could make the fleet to rise by 15% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Should the amount of demolitions not pick up, supply growth could go even higher.”
In the first four months of the year, the report showed, Baltic Dry Index (BDI) moved to around 3,000 but May brought along stronger rates particularly to capesize that lifted the BDI to 4,209.
With panamax, supramax and handysize rates on an upward trend, the dry bulk market is expected to rise on the back of strong demand and despite a continuously large inflow of new tonnage, it said.
On the contracting side, a total of 305 newbuilding contracts have been signed in five months that added 25.3 million dwt to the order books scheduled to be delivered starting next year to 2012.
Meanwhile, freight rates are forecast to slide down from current levels over the next six months.
Capesize rate is seen to go below $40,000 per day while the supramax and handysize vessel types will go down to $15,000-20,000 per day, primarily caused by weaker trade and fleet growth.
