Economists polled recently have evinced less optimism for Singapore’s economic performance this year than they did in a poll held three months previously.
Analysts who participated in the latest quarterly survey of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) indicated lowered expectations of growth for the Singapore economy in 2015, cutting their forecast to 2.2% from predictions in June of a 2.7% expansion.
The September 2015 survey pointed to the Singapore economy most likely growing by between 2% and 2.9% this year, which is unchanged from the last survey, MAS said.
For the third quarter of 2015, the respondents said they expect Singaporean gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 2.1%, also a drop from the forecast of 2.9% in the June survey.
All sectors except wholesale and retail trade were downgraded in terms of outlook for the year. Manufacturing is now anticipated to contract by 2.7% this year, down from the 0.5% growth forecast in the previous survey. Finance & insurance is predicted to grow 6.6% from 7% previously, while construction is expected to post growth of 2.3%, shaved down from 3.3%. Similarly, accommodation and food services is likewise expected to see a contraction of 0.1%, down from a growth forecast of 1% earlier.
In contrast, prospects for wholesale and retail trade have grown more upbeat, with forecasts of a 4.8% progress this year, up from 3.3% from the last survey.
MAS, the city-state’s central bank, said the economy expanded by 1.8% in the second quarter, which was lower than the median forecast of 2.7% reported in the June survey.
For 2016, the respondents expect GDP growth to come in at 2.8%.
“As reflected by the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 2.0 to 2.9% next year, lower than the 3.0 to 3.9% range reported in the previous survey,” said MAS.
The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters is conducted every quarter after the release of detailed economic data for the preceding three months. The median forecasts in the latest report were based on the estimates of 23 out of 28 economists to whom the poll was sent in mid-August, MAS said, adding that the results did not represent its own views or forecasts.
Photo: Nicolas Lannuzel
