The gross domestic product (GDP) of Thailand is now seen to grow between 2.8% and 3.8% for this year, down from the earlier forecast of between 3% and 4% made in November last year, said the National Economics and Social Development Board (NESDB).
The board cites persistent volatility in the world economy and the water shortage that continues to affect the country’s farming sector for the lowered predictions.
The NESDB predicts that Thai economic growth in 2016 will stand at 3.3%, or between 2.8% and 3.8%, the expansion largely owing to the government’s increasing spending and investment.
“The lower 2016 growth is mainly due to a slowdown in the global economy, especially China while low crude oil prices also add pressures on the country’s growth,” NESDB Secretary-General Poramethee Vimolsiri said in a press conference February 15.
Besides higher public spending, other positive influences on the national economy for this year will be the baht depreciation, cheap oil prices, and expanding tourism, forecasts the agency, even as it warned the Thai government to keep a close watch on the slow global economic recovery.
“The tourism industry remains another key engine of growth for Thailand’s economy. Household consumption, private investment and government investments are also expected to do well this year,” Poramethee added.
He said the global economy is expected to expand by 3.3% this year, lower by 0.1% from the growth of 3.4% projected earlier.
Thai exports for this year are foreseen to inch up 1.2% year-on-year to US$214.7 billion, while imports are expected to grow 1.3% to $179 billion, reported the National News Bureau of Thailand.
On Thailand’s major trading partners, Poramethee said trade with the United States is expected to grow by 2.6% this year, the European Union 1.7%, Japan 1%, and China 6.5%.
Meanwhile, for full-year 2015, the national economy grew 2.8%, higher than the 0.8% expansion in 2014. As for exports, last year’s shipments declined 5.6% due to the economic slowdown in Thailand’s trade partners as well as decreasing global oil and agricultural prices.
Fourth-quarter GDP also grew an estimated 2.8% following an increase in household spending and in investment by the public sector. Exports contracted 7.9% in the quarter.
Photo: Heinrich Damm
