The outlook for the airfreight sector is healthy as demand for freighter aircraft continues to trend higher, says a forecast issued recently by global aviation consultancy Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG).
According to ACMG’s “Freighter Forecast for 2015,” the airfreight market will need about 125 new freighters per year to meet growth and replacement needs over the next 20 years in a “baseline-growth” scenario, which uses a 4.5% annual growth rate in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs). This compares to the 95 freighters (production units and passenger-to-freighter conversions) added per year from 1990 to 2014.
Even under the extreme case of no growth in air cargo demand over the next 20 years, about 60 added freighters per year will still be required to offset the capacity of freighters retired from the existing fleet.
“Some vigor returned to the airfreight market last year, and that has only continued this year,” said Robert Dahl, managing director of ACMG, and one of the forecast’s authors. “When looking over the long term, the outlook for freighters is healthy.”
The freighter aircraft market has undergone a period of significant change since 2000. Global airfreight demand has experienced an unprecedented level of volatility since 2000, and three of the worst years ever in airfreight traffic declines have taken place since 2000.
As such, the jet freighter fleet peaked in size at 1,800 units in 2006-2007, but then contracted. The fleet total has hovered around 1,600 units since 2009. The total increased by about 50 units in 2014, to reach a level of 1,609 entering 2015.
The baseline forecast calls for the fleet to grow to 2,887 units through 2034.
“Despite challenges facing the freighter market in the post-recession period, there continue to be new developments that will have an impact on the market going forward,” Dahl said. “The news on the freighter front over the past year was a mix of good and bad, with most of the good news coming in the narrowbody sector.”
ACMG updates its forecast annually. The newly released 2015 edition covers the period from 2015 through 2034, predicting demand for freighters to meet growth and replacement needs under multiple scenarios of future air cargo market growth.
Photo: Cory Barnes
