The Airports Council International (ACI) in its World Airport Traffic Forecasts 2016–2040 predicts just a slight rise in global air cargo volumes each year over the next decade, as it noted many barriers to healthier growth.
“The weakened global economy and a sluggish global trade environment were definite deterrents to growth in air cargo volumes. There also continues to be a structural substitution effect in the delivery of goods across modes of transport, even in the face of strong economic fundamentals,” ACI said.
“While the shipment of raw materials and perishables have been affected the most by a move away from air cargo services to ocean freight, the modal shift can also be seen in shipments of high-tech and machinery parts. The largest trade flow from Asia has experienced the weightiest shift away from air cargo.”
Thus, ACI said, in the short to medium terms, “global air cargo volumes are expected to increase modestly, in the realm of 2.4% on annualized basis up to 2025.”
Asian airlines log 2.5% volume expansion
Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific airlines witnessed international air cargo demand rising moderately in August by 2.5% in freight tonne kilometer (FTK) terms compared to the same month last year, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA).
The average international freight load factor edged marginally higher by 0.1 percentage points to 60.5% in August, on a 2.3% increase in offered freight capacity.
Andrew Herdman, AAPA director general, said global freight markets remained subdued, noting that Asia-Pacific airlines saw generally lackluster international air cargo demand for the January-August period, registering a 0.7% volume decline compared to the same period last year, “although the shortfall has narrowed following a modest uptick in recent months.”
Looking ahead, Herdman said the persistent weakness in global trade conditions remains a concern, “with rates remaining depressed despite the recent uptick in air cargo activity.”
